Contemporary Domestic Politics of South Caucasus

The Republic of Azerbaijan, located in the west of the Caspian Sea, has many neighboring countries such as Iran in the South, Russia in the North, Georgia in the northwest, and Armenia in the southwest, and through Nakhchivan Turkey in the West. It covers a total area of 86.000 km², including a noncontiguous Nakhchivan Autonomous State. The official language is Azeri Turkish, and the most common religion is İslam. The largest cities are Baku, Ganja, Sumgait, Lankaran and Sheki. According to the 2020 data, the Azerbaijani population is 10,067.1 million people. Ethnic composition of the population according to the 2009 census is 91.6% Azerbaijanis, 2.0% Lezgins, 1.4% Armenians (almost all Armenians live in Karabakh), 1.3% Russians, 1.3% Talish, 0.6% Avars, 0.4% Turks, 0.3% Tatars, 0.3% Tats, 0.2% Ukrainians, 0.1% Tsahurs, 0.1% Georgians, 0.1% Jews, 0.1% Kurds, other 0.2%.

Azerbaijan has gone through many human history layers. The area has been occupied by Persian, Greek, Roman, Sassanid, Arab, Mongolian, and Russian forces.

Azerbaijan was an essential part of the Safavid state, which was founded in 1501 by the Azerbaijani Turk Shah Ismail, whose center was Tabriz. Until Shah Ismail’s time, some part of today’s Azerbaijan was a part of the states’ political structures of the Atabey Ildenizli (1136-1225) and one of the longest-lasting states in world history, the Shirvanshahs (861 - 1538).

In the middle of the 18th century, after the end of the Safavid line and the assassination of Nadir Shah (Afshar) in 1747, central control over former Safavid lands ended, and local rulers asserted their independence. Among the Caucasian khanates were Baku, Kuba, Sheki, Karabagh, Nakhchivan, and Erevan. Azerbaijan lands, which were the center of conflict between the Iranian Qajars state and the Russian Empire, were occupied by the Russian Empire in 1801-1828.

The political developments started at the beginning of the 20th century (1905-07 Russian Revolution, 1906 Constitutional Monarchy in Iran, Young Turks Revolution in the Ottoman Empire in 1908) did not bypass Baku as the most oil-producing city in the world at that time. Each of these three upheavals left its impact on Azerbaijan and involved some Azerbaijani Turks’ participation. The Azeri language press and the political associations developed more freely after the weakening of government controls. The Musavat (Equality) party, founded in 1911 with a liberal, secular and nationalist character, became the largest political power in Azerbaijan after the end of the Tsar regime in February 1917 in Russia.

After the Bolshevik Revolution of October 25, 1917, the Transcaucasian peoples were forced to unite in the same center. The delegates elected to the Russian Duma as deputies established the Transcaucasian Seymini at the meeting dated January 10, 1918. On March 3, 1918, after the signing of the Brest-Litovsk Agreement, Transcaucasia’s situation changed. On April 9, 1918, Transcaucasia became an independent country, and although Georgians and Armenians reluctantly but Azerbaijanis willingly separated from Russia. After Georgia declared itself an independent republic on May 26, 1918, 44 deputies from Azerbaijan announced that the Democratic Republic of Azerbaijan was established on May 28, 1918. This political structure, which lasted only 23 months, could not withstand the Bolshevik armies’ pressure from the north and was destroyed by Soviet Russia on April 28, 1920.

Azerbaijan contributed significantly to the USSR’s economy as one of the wealthiest union republics among the USSR. In February 1987, the High Council of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Province (which is included in the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic) decided to unify with the Armenian SSR, generating comprehensive social reactions in Azerbaijan. The central government’s proArmenian attitude made it even more complicated. The failure of the Azerbaijani SSR Communist leaders to react to these events caused the movements for independence from the USSR. The Central Committee of the USSR dismissed the Chairman of the Azerbaijan SSR Kamran Bagirov and appointed Abdurrahman Vezirov as First President

While the independence struggle continued in Azerbaijan, the Armenians in Karabakh and the Armenian state supporting them continued their attacks against the Azerbaijani lands. They tried to grab the region through violence. President Mütellibov had to resign on March 6, 1992, after the genocide of Khojaly committed by the Armenians on February 25-26, 1992. The President’s powers were transferred to the  Yagub Mammadov according to the constitution because the government could not govern the country and Shusha’s city (May 8, 1992), where Azerbaijani Turks lived in Nagorno-Karabakh, was occupied by Armenia. The Mammadov government could not prevent the coup attempt in the parliament on May 14, 1992, which was aimed to bring Mütellibov back to power, with the pressure from Moscow. Müttelibov, speaking in the parliament, declared that he had regained the powers of the Presidency. All these caused the people to unite around the Azerbaijan People’s Front (AHC) and stand against the coup d’état on May 15, 1992.

On June 7, 1992, the democratic and transparent presidential elections were held for the first time in Azerbaijan. The leader of the AHC, Abulfaz Elchibey, was elected as the President of Azerbaijan with 59 percent of the votes. During the rule of the APF, which continued until June 4, 1993, Azerbaijan started a military operation to control Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the nationalist attitude of the Elchibey government against Russia and Iran caused these states to act against him. The APF government has carried out political, economic, and cultural policies to break the newly established independent republic from the Soviet traditions within a year of its rule. This policy caused serious resistance by internal and external dynamics. On June 4, 1993, Colonel Suret Hüseyinov, supported by Russia, made a coup in Ganja. With the help of pro-Russian political forces in the government and the Parliament, the Elchibey government was overthrown. 

The process of the movement to independence has been a painful period for the Azerbaijani people. On September 23, 1989, Azerbaijan was among the first Soviet republics to adopt its own Constitutional Law on Sovereignty, and preparations for the Parliamentary elections to be held in March have been started. However, on January 13-14, 1990, the Soviet army entered Baku on January 20, 1990, killing 131 civilians and injuring hundreds of citizens. The Soviet army’s intervention in Baku was a tragedy for Azerbaijan. The military took full control of Baku within a few hours. Nevertheless, on January 20, 1990, Moscow essentially lost Azerbaijan.

Immediately after the intervention, the President of the Azerbaijan SSR Communist Party, Abdurrahman Vezirov, was dismissed and replaced by Ayaz Mütellibov. From the first day of his government, Müttelibov tried to rule the country only with Moscow’s decisions, which later led to the unification of all opposition forces against him. The failed coup in Moscow, which was established to save the USSR in Moscow, on 21 August, resulted in the separation of the Soviet republics from the USSR by declaring their independence. Azerbaijan declared independence on October 18, 1991.

The APF government has carried out political, economic, and cultural policies to break the newly established independent republic from the Soviet traditions within a year of its rule. This policy caused serious resistance by internal and external dynamics. On June 4, 1993, Colonel Suret Hüseyinov, supported by Russia, made a coup in Ganja. With the help of pro-Russian political forces in the government and the Parliament, the Elchibey government was overthrown. Heydar Aliyev was called to power on June 15, 1993. Assuming the President’s powers since June 24, 1993, Aliyev was first elected as the President of the National Assembly and later elected as the President of Azerbaijan on October 3, 1993. 

One of the most important events of the Aliyev period was the signing of the Oil Agreements signed in Baku on September 20, 1994. In addition to Western oil companies, Turkish and Russian oil companies were also included in this agreement. This clearly shows that Aliyev was following a balanced policy in foreign politics. To maintain this balance, Aliyev made Azerbaijan a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in September 1993. Aliyev was elected as the President of Azerbaijan for the second term in the Presidential elections in October 1998. The National Block, which is led by the former president Elchibey, boycotted the elections. Elchibey was in home detention in his village for years, and he was allowed to enter Baku at this election. With the death of Elchibey on August 22, 2000, the National Block was divided, and the opposition forces could not return to the old union since then. 

Shortly after Ilham Aliyev came to power, he gradually reformed his rule by replacing former corrupt officials with young professionals who were educated abroad. However, former team members’ resistance to these reforms slowed down the change. Ilham Aliyev successfully concluded these changes under his rule during the 4th Presidency period. İlham Aliyev, who eliminated his rivals in domestic politics, both in the government and the opposition, and tried to carry out a balanced policy in the triangle of Russia, Iran, and the West in foreign policy, like his father, Heydar Aliyev.

The new Constitution containing articles for a robust executive body in Azerbaijan was adopted in 1995 when Heydar Aliyev was the president. This Constitution declared the Republic of Azerbaijan as a democratic and secular state. It contains articles 1-3 of the Constitution stating that the Azerbaijani people are the only source of the state’s power. Therefore, the approval of all changes to the Constitution will be made only through free elections and referendums. The Constitution gives broad powers to the executive. The Constitution’s articles’ practical application and interpretation are subject to the executive body’s will and discretion. The constitutional amendments made in March 2009 further strengthened the presidency by allowing the same person to hold the presidency of Azerbaijan for more than two terms. The president of the Azerbaijani Republic is elected in general elections for a term of seven years, and there currently are no term limits. The president is ultimately responsible for both domestic and foreign affairs. The legislative body of the Azerbaijan Republic consists of 125 deputies elected for a term of 5 years by the National Parliament majority system.

After Azerbaijan gained its independence, it started to reduce its dependence on Russia by adopting laws to break away from the former Soviets in economic areas and carry out economic policies to attract foreign capital by turning towards the West. On September 20, 1994, an agreement was signed in Baku for the extraction of “Azeri,” “Çırak,” “Güneşli” oil reserves in the Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian. At the “Agreement of the Century,” 13 oil companies from 8 countries have participated. Azerbaijan started to implement its new oil strategy with the signing of this agreement. At the first stage, although the launch of Caspian oil to the world market through the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline started, another important event in 2006 was the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline to transport oil from Baku to the Western markets through Tbilisi and Ceyhan cities. This project effectively put an end to the Russian monopoly on transporting energy resources from the Caspian Sea.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which caused by the invasion of 14% of the Azerbaijani land by Armenia, the exile of Azerbaijani Turks from historical lands by Armenia, the death of more than 20,000 people, and causing over 1 million people to be refugees, has been continuing since 1988.

The settlement of Armenians in the Azerbaijan territory began during the reign of Russian Tsar Peter I. On  November 10, 1724, in response to the Armenian people’s appeal to him, Peter I said that he guaranteed the resettlement of the Armenians to the rich territories on the Caspian shores for their safety. This policy of Peter I was continued by all the Tsars who came to power after him. As a result of the resettlement policy of the Russian Empire in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the number of Armenians in the South Caucasus increased from 300,000 to 1,300,000, and the Russian historians themselves acknowledge that this resettlement was organized by the Russian government. This resettlement was formalized by the Turkmenchay Treaty signed in 1828 after the Russo-Iranian war. Nagorno Karabakh became part of the People’s Republic of Azerbaijan in 1918-1920. After the Bolsheviks came to power, the region became part of the Soviet Socialist Republic of Azerbaijan on July 5, 1921. Autonomy is granted to this region. On July 7, 1923, the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast was established. Although the Nagorno-Karabakh problem seemed to be resolved by law, the Armenians always kept this issue in mind. They sent 16 appeals to Moscow regarding the annexation of Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia. Moscow rejected all requests made in 1940-60 and 1970. In February 1988, the Nagorno-Karabakh Congress of People’s Deputies drafted a proposal related to the transfer of Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia and sent it to the authorities of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and the USSR for discussion. Without waiting for the USSR Supreme Soviet’s decision, the Congress of the People’s Deputies of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) adopted the resolution for the unification of the NKAO to Armenia on July 12, 1988. The Supreme Soviet of the Armenian SSR adopted the resolution on the unification of Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia on December 1, 1989. On January 10, 1990, the Supreme Soviet of the USSR annulled the decision of the Supreme Soviet of the Armenian SSR, considering it illegal. Moscow was biased towards the conflict, favoring Armenia over Azerbaijan, so any activity of the Azerbaijani side was blocked. Moscow also turned a blind eye to the deportation of about 300,000 Azerbaijani Turks from Armenia. Therefore, all those tensions led to armed conflicts in 1989-1992 and then the Armenian-Azerbaijan war in 1992-1994. The most tragic event of the war was the joint attack by the Armenian armed forces and the 366th motorized rifle regiment of Russia on the city of Khojaly, the northern part of Nagorno-Karabakh, where only Azerbaijani Turks lived, on February 25-26, 1991. As a result of that attack, 613 people from Khojaly were killed, 106 women and 83 children were tortured, 1275 people were captured. Political problems within Azerbaijan led to the Armenian occupation of Shusha city, the historical center of Azerbaijani Turks in Nagorno-Karabakh, on May 8, 1992, and the Lachin Corridor, that connected Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia, on May 17, 1992. Although the Azerbaijani army liberated a large part of Karabakh from Armenian occupation in 1992, the Ganja revolt of June 4, 1993, led to the withdrawal of the Azerbaijani army and occupation of six regions of Azerbaijan, including the liberated territories of Nagorno-Karabakh from the Armenian armed forces. With Russia’s mediation, the Bishkek agreement was signed on May 5, 1994, declaring a ceasefire between the parties. Armenia does not accept any decisions made by international organizations such as the UN, the Council of Europe, and the OSCE related to the liberation of Azerbaijan’s territories occupied by Armenia. In addition to the fact that the Armenians did not accept these decisions, the situation is aggravated because the Armenian armed forces opened fire on Azerbaijan’s territories in violation of the ceasefire agreement. Azerbaijan prevented those attacks. In April 2016, such shootings led to a large-scale attack by the Azerbaijani army, and a ceasefire was again declared between the parties with the mediation of Russia. On September 27, 2020, Armenia’s shelling the rocket fire on Azerbaijan and killed civilians in Azerbaijan, prompting the Azerbaijani army to resume largescale offensive operations. As a result of those battles, most of the Karabakh, including Kelbajer, Shusha, Lachin, Jabrayil, Fuzuli, Zengilan, and Gubadli districts and several hundred villages occupied by Armenians in 1993, was liberated from occupation. With Russian President Vladimir Putin’s mediation, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement on 10 November 2020.

The biggest problem that Georgia is experiencing is ethnic problems. The “Glasnost” and “Perestroika” reforms that started in 1985 paved the way for the USSR’s republics to take their first steps towards independence. The problems created by the minority peoples in the South Caucasus region where ethnic problems were the highest and the protests in these republics later turned into the struggle for independence that played an essential role in the USSR collapse. Such struggles by ethnic groups within the republic undermined Georgia’s territorial integrity. They led to the de facto separation of the two autonomous republics that were once part of the state borders. While leaving the USSR, the country faced ethnic problems, which later affected Georgia’s domestic politics. Georgia was involved in a civil war, and this war accelerated the separation of ethnic peoples from Georgia.

Located in the western part of the Caucasus region, Georgia borders the Russian Federation in the north, with the Republic of Azerbaijan in the east and southeast, with the Republic of Armenia in the south and Turkey in the southwest. The Black Sea is located on the western border of the country. Georgia’s capital is Tbilisi, and its major cities are Kutaisi, Batumi, Rustavi, and Sukhumi. According to official numbers  the country covers 69,700 km2 and has a population of approximately 3,716,900. The population consists of 3,224,600 Georgians (86.8%), 223,000 Azerbaijani Turks (6.3%), 160,180 Armenians (4.5%), 26,500 Russians (0.7%), 14,400 Ossetians (0.4%), 12,200 Yazidi Kurds (0.3%), 6,000 Kistins (0.2%), 5,500 Greeks (0.1%), 2,400 Assyrians (0.1%) and 14,300 (0.4%) are other peoples. In 2020, per capita income was $ 4,763.50, the growth rate was 5.1%, the unemployment rate was 11.6%, and the inflation was 4.8%.

The history of Georgians, one of the South Caucasus’ indigenous peoples, goes back to ancient times. Georgia is one of the oldest settlements in Europe. Until the 18th century, several states were established by Georgians. In the 18th century, with the Georgievsk Treaty signed in 1783 between Georgia, which could not withstand Iran and Ottoman pressure, and Russia, a Russian protectorate was established over the Kartli-Kakheti kingdom. In January 1798, George XII asked the Russian Tsar Paul I to include Kartli-Kakheti in Russia. On May 8, 1802, a new administration, “Georgian Supreme Government,” was established. In Georgia, which was part of the Russian empire for more than 100 years, in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the national liberation movement was strengthened, and the Democratic Republic of Georgia was established in 1918. In February 1921, troops of the 11th Red Army  invaded and sovietized Georgia. Uprisings occurred in the country in 1922-1924 against this occupation. In the post-war period, mass protests against the government took place in Georgia in 1956 due to economic and hidden ideological processes. The election of Eduard Shevardnadze as the First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Georgian Communist Party in 1972 marked the beginning of a new era in Georgia’s political and economic life. In 1985, Shevardnadze was replaced by Cumber Patiashvili after being nominated for the USSR Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Gorbachev’s reforms in the USSR and the central administration’s difficulty solving socio-economic problems strengthened separatism in Georgia. On March 18, 1989, at the meeting of the Regional Committee of the Communist Party of Abkhazia and the Council of Ministers of the Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic of Abkhazia, it was decided to separate the Soviet Socialist Republic of Abkhazia from the Georgian SSR and to join the USSR as a full-fledged union republic. However, the Communist Party of the Georgian SSR rejected the Abkhazian decision due to the protests that started in Tbilisi on March 25, 1989. The protests turned into a struggle for Georgia’s separation from the USSR in 1989. On April 9, 1989, 19 peaceful protesters were killed in Tbilisi due to the dispersal of the demonstrators with the help of the Soviet Army. Such developments have led to the deepening of the gap between the people and those who ruled the republic and the legalization of national thought long-suppressed during the “restructuring” in Georgia. On March 9, 1990, the Supreme Soviet of the Georgian SSR passed a law on the Georgian SSR’s sovereignty. In line with the changes made to the new election law on October 28, 1990, the Georgian parliament held free, multi-party elections for the first time. The radical national political block “Round Table - Free Georgia,” led by Zviad Gamsakhurdia, won this election. Georgia held a referendum on March 31, 1991, to restore Georgia’s independence. 98.9 % of the people voted in favor of independence in the referendum. On April 9, 1991, the Supreme Soviet of Georgia passed the law “Restoring the Independence of the State.” As a logical continuation of this process, the parliament passed a law on establishing a presidency. The law determined the Republic of Georgia’s presidency’s establishment and legal status on “Constitutional Amendments and their Annexes” on April 14, 1991. At the Supreme Soviet’s extraordinary meeting on April 14, 1991, Gamsakhurdia was elected the first president of Georgia. In the first presidential elections held on May 26, Zviad Gamsakhurdia won with 87 percent of the votes. As a result of Gamsakhurdia’s nationalist policy, many people from other nationalities had to leave the country because one of the most basic requirements of having positions in the newly established and organized state structures was to speak the Georgian language. It created obstacles for other people who did not know the Georgian language very well. The slogan “Georgia is for Georgians” put forward by Gamsakhurdia provoked the opposition of different nationalities living in Georgia and Georgians and encouraged separatism in the country. Several such reasons and the wrong actions of the first president caused former supporters to join the opposition. As a result of the political events that started in early September, Gamsakhurdia’s “Round Table” regime began to collapse. The government began to disband National Democratic Party demonstrators, which sparked a strong wave of protest. Representatives of all opposition forces participated in the demonstrations. The situation peaked on December 21. The National Guard, under Kitovani, surrounded the Supreme Soviet building where Gamsakhurdia and his supporters were located. The turning point in the conflict was the opposition’s ability to appoint Sigua as the Head of the Military Council to unite the army. On the night of January 6, 1992, Gamsakhurdia left Georgia, and power passed to the Military Council. In March 1992, the Military Council decided to resign, and a State Council with 70 members was established, 36 of which were opposition parties. Shevardnadze, former Communist Party President of the Georgian SSR, was appointed as the State Council president. Elections were held in October 1992 to create a new parliament. Twenty-six parties were represented in the 235-seat parliament united in 11 factions. Shevardnadze was elected Speaker of Parliament with 96 percent of the vote. Although the head of parliament had been given the majority of powers, he could not change the government and decide to hold new elections. The new government made significant changes in national policy, and administrative reforms were implemented. Georgia was declared a democratic republic in October 1995. Eduard Shevardnadze became the second President of Georgia. He headed the state from 1995 to 2003. Shevardnadze, different from the foreign policy carried out by Gamsakhurdia, tried to preserve the balance between Russia and the West by being a member of both western-oriented international organizations and regional organizations. Georgia became a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States on December 3, 1993. Since the war between Tbilisi and Abkhazia was ongoing at the same time, Tbilisi was obliged to sign a new agreement allowing the CIS membership of Georgia as well as the extension of the presence of four Russian military bases in the country for another 25 years. Parliamentary elections were held on November 2, 2003, in Georgia. The block of Shevardnadze-Aslan Abashidze and Mikheil Saakashvili-Zurab Zhvania entered the parliament. However, the election results did not satisfy the opposition leaders Mikheil Saakashvili, Zurab Zhvani, and Nino Burjanadze. Because of this, they started to organize massive protests with the help of several international and non-governmental organizations. This movement called the “Rose Revolution” resulted in the resignation of Eduard Shevardnadze on November 23, 2003. Early presidential elections were held in post-revolutionary Georgia on January 4, 2004, and Saakashvili was elected the new President of Georgia with 96 percent of the votes. When Saakashvili was in power between 2004 and 2013, he directed its foreign policy to the West. He tried to solve the existing problems in the country with these states’ help. This policy resulted in Russia’s armed intervention in Georgia in 2008, and Saakashvili’s reformist image, which carries out an independent policy, was damaged. In the 2012 parliamentary elections, Saakashvili’s United National Movement Party was defeated, and the change of government resulted when Bidzina Ivanishvili came to power. Georgia held presidential elections on October 27, 2013. Saakashvili’s rule came to an end. Giorgi Margvelashvili was elected the fourth President of Georgia by winning 61 percent of the votes. In 2013, Ivanishvili resigned from his position as Prime Minister, refused to lead the party, and formally quit politics. He announced his return to politics in 2018. Since 2018, the President of the Republic of Georgia is Salome Zurabishvili.

The Republic of Georgia is a unitary state with a parliamentary system. There are Ajar and Abkhaz Autonomous Republics within the Republic of Georgia. The status of the Autonomous Province of South Ossetia was annulled by the Georgian parliament’s decision in 1990. With the changes made in the constitution on October 15, 2010, the country switched from the Presidential System to the Parliamentary system. The Georgian Parliament is the highest legislative body in Georgia. According to the constitution, the Georgian Parliament is the highest representative body of the state, determining the main aspects of the country’s domestic and foreign policy, implementing legislation, monitoring the Georgian government’s activities, and exercising other powers determined by the Georgian Constitution. In this framework, the president’s powers were significantly reduced while the prime minister’s powers, the Government, and the Parliament were increased.

Because Georgia connects Turkey to Central Asia, Russia to Armenia, and plays a role in bridging Azerbaijan to Turkey, it has a strategic position. It also is the main route of oil pipelines, natural gas line and the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (2017) railway line. In the post-Soviet period, Georgia’s priority issues were the democratization of political life and the transition to a market economy. However, as in other Post-Soviet republics, many mistakes were made during the transition process in Georgia. The economic reforms that were initiated stagnated in the last years of Shevardnadze’s rule. Seeing that Georgia’s fiscal situation was deteriorating and unable to pay the loans, the International Monetary Fund stopped the loans given to Georgia on the pretext that the economic conditions and recommendations were not fulfilled. The increase in corruption and bribery put the economy, which was already in bad shape, in an even more difficult position. Low-salary civil servants looked for alternative income sources. The country’s inability to get rid of the economic bottleneck and the regressions experienced in social, economic, and financial areas  led to increased social reactions. Finally, the “Rose Revolution” took place. The Saakashvili government, which came to power as a result of the revolution, implemented many reform packages to develop the economy and eradicate poverty. In line with these reforms, necessary legal arrangements were made to eliminate negativities such as bribery and corruption, negligence of duty, waste of public resources, etc. In this process, financial values confiscated within penal sanctions were used to cover public debts. Legal mechanisms were introduced to prevent the evasion of taxes and similar payments. The reforms made attracted international institutions and companies’ attention and opened the door for foreign capital to enter the country. Economic and trade relations with Turkey, Azerbaijan, China, and Ukraine gained momentum during this period.

South Ossetia Problem, Abkhazia Problem and the Adjara Problem.

The territory of the Republic of Armenia, which declared its independence on October 23, 1991, is 29.8 thousand km2, and its population is 2,980,100. According to the 2011 census, Armenia is one of the most ethnically homogeneous states in the world. Only 1.9% of the republic population, consisting of 98.1% Armenians, consists of other ethnic groups. 95% of its population are Christians of the Armenian Gregorian sect. Armenia has borders with Turkey in the West, with the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic (included in the Azerbaijan Republic) and the Islamic Republic of Iran in the South, the Azerbaijan Republic in the East, and the Republic of Georgia in the North. Its largest cities are Yerevan, Gyumri.

The Armenian immigration, which started with the settlement of 40,000 families from Iran to the Azerbaijani lands after the Turkmencay Agreement signed between Iran and Russia in 1828, ended with Ottoman Armenians settling in the Russian Empire, which had the protective status, as a result of the suppression of the Armenian revolts started in the Ottoman Empire at the end of the 19th century. The Armenians, who assumed the role of allies of the Russian Tsarist government in the Transcaucasia region, entered into armed conflicts with the local inhabitants of the region before (1905-06) and after (1918) World War I and laid the foundations of the Turkish-Muslim Armenian disputes in the Caucasus. With the dissolution of the Russian Empire, deputies elected from  Transcaucasia to the former Russian Duma founded the Transcaucasian Seym in December 1917 and then the Democratic Federal Republic of Transcaucasia on April 22, 1918. In place of this self-dissolving Federal Republic, three independent republics emerged. One of these three states was the People’s Republic of Armenia. According to the Sevres Treaty articles, the Armenian People’s Republic invaded Turkey’s territory that it claimed and, therefore, fought with the Turkish Grand Parliamentary Assembly’s Army in 1920. Armenia made history by signing the Treaty of Gyumri on December 2, 1920. Bolshevik forces entered Yerevan and ended the Democratic Republic of Armenia in December 1920.

Glasnost (Openness) and Perestroika (Restructuring) reforms initiated by Mikhail Gorbachev in 1985 revealed Armenians’ claims on the Azerbaijani lands again at the beginning of the 20th century. The USSR central government did not provide the territorial claims in line with the Armenians’ expectations turned into Armenia’s independence movement. During this period, the Armenian lobby’s “Hay Dat” (Armenian Issue) theory, which had been operating abroad for many years, turned into an indispensable element of the Armenian national identity and became the cornerstone of the establishment of a nation-state in Armenia with the Karabakh problem towards the collapse of the USSR. The First President Levon TerPetrosian actively used the “Hay Dat” doctrine linked to the “Armenian issue” in the war in Karabakh. The recognition of “genocide” even in article 11 of the Declaration of Independence leads to compensation and territorial claims from Turkey. Vazgen Manukyan, one of the leaders of ANM, was appointed as prime minister. Thus, the dominance in Armenia passed from the communists to the opposition. The Declaration of Independence of Armenia, adopted on August 23, 1990, determined the state’s new rule. Although the opposition forces quickly offered to leave the USSR, Ter-Petrosian offered to solve this problem in stages due to Armenia’s financial condition, the state’s security, and its assistance in resolving the Karabakh conflict. Turkey’s Armenian borders were accepted as invalid in the declaration, and recognition of Turkey’s so-called “genocide” was requested. Simultaneously, the unification of Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia was included in this declaration. These issues stated in the declaration constitute the basis of Armenian foreign policy. The Armenian administration boycotted the referendum to be held to protect the Soviet Union in March 1991. A referendum on the independence of Armenia was held on September 21, 1991. When 95% of the people voted for independence, Armenia became the first republic to officially leave the USSR. On September 23, 1991, the Republic of Armenia declared its independence. For the first time in Armenia’s history, on October 16, 1991, Presidential elections were held, and Levon Ter-Petrosian was elected the first President of the independent Republic of Armenia. During the presidency of Ter-Petrosian from 1991 to 1998, the Republic of Armenia experienced important events both in its domestic and foreign policy. Although Ter-Petrosian tried to present the Karabakh problem to international organizations as the problem of Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh, not Armenia, the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia (1992-1994) also coincided with his term. This war resulted in the occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh and 7 Azerbaijani districts around it by the Armenian armies due to the internal situation in Azerbaijan. The Bishkek Protocol was signed in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan’s capital, on May 14, 1994. In domestic politics, with the election of Ter Petrosian as president, the party leaders who were in the same movement with him once moved to the opposition and became Ter Petrosian’s strongest rivals. They accused Ter-Petrosian of treason to the old program of the movement and criticized his foreign policy. Among the opposition forces, it is necessary to mention especially the Karabakh Committee. During the invasion process of Karabakh by the Armenian armies, the fact that politicians and soldiers from Karabakh took an essential role in this issue strengthened these people’s positions in Armenia’s domestic policy. These activities resulted in the Karabakh clan gaining control over Armenia. In the presidential elections held in 1996, apart from Ter-Petrosian, former Defense Minister Vazgen Manukyan from the National Democratic Alliance, Paruyr Ayrikyan from the National DeterminationFate Union Party, Aram Sargsyan from the Democrat Party, (the last two later withdrew from the elections for V. Manukyan), and politicians like Badalyan from the Communist Party were also candidates. In the elections held on September 22, 1996, Ter-Petrosian was once again elected as the President of Armenia, leaving his closest rival Manukyan behind with 51.7%. However, after the elections, the opposition rejected the elections’ results and started demonstrations in Yerevan. Although the government harshly suppressed these demonstrations throughout 1996, Ter-Petrosian appointed one of them, the “Karabakh” clan leader, Robert Kocharian, as the Prime Minister due to the opposition’s pressure. Despite taking such steps backward, Ter Petrosian could not hold on to power any longer and resigned from his duty as president in February 1998. Presidential elections were moved to March 16, 1998. On March 6, 1998, the Central Election Board announced 12 candidates for the Presidency of Armenia. Robert Kocharian was elected the new President of Armenia in the second round of the elections held on March 30, 1998. On March 5, 2003, he also won the second term presidential electionsRobert Kocharian and Serzh Sargsyan, who came to power in 2008 after Kocharian, were unable to solve their social-economic problems. Especially the terrorist attack on the Parliament during the time of Kocharian’s rule left deep marks on Armenia’s political life and caused the emergence of new equations. In the history of independence, although the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an exception, no development has heavily impacted the state tradition of Armenia as much as this incident that took place on October 27, 1999. Unlike Ter-Petrossian, Robert Kocharian followed a stricter attitude in foreign policy, avoided negotiations with Azerbaijan on the NagornoKarabakh conflict, and recommended Azerbaijan to meet directly with the Karabakh sovereignty. As a result of this policy, Armenia completely lost its chance to participate in regional projects Serz Sargsyan, who was appointed as a Prime Minister by Robert Kocharian in April 2007, was accepted as Robert Kocharian’s successor. In the 2008 election, Sargsyan’s primary opponent was former President Ter-Petrosian. When the results of the elections were announced, and the information that Sarkisyan was elected President with 55% of the votes against 21% of the votes for Ter-Petrossian became official, Ter-Petrossian supporters’ protests started on February 20, 2008, in the capital Yerevan and lasted for ten days. As a result of the armed intervention, ten people were killed, and tens of people were injured (Human Rights Watch, 2009). Ter-Petrossian was sentenced to house arrest without a court order (Hammarberg, 2008, p. 10). The Council of Europe, the European Union, and Human Rights Organizations have harshly criticized the Armenian government. Sargsyan established his new government in April after these events. In the newly structured government, Armenia declared to the world once again that the “Karabakh” clan had taken power by appointing the Defense Minister of the “Nagorno-Karabakh Republic” Seyran Ohanyan to the Ministry of Defense, and the Armenian Ambassador to France Eduard Nalbandyan to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Serzh Sargsyan also signaled that he would make foreign policy changes in the first months of his rule, although military forces came to power. With the closure of Georgia and Armenia’s borders due to the war between Russia and Georgia in 2008, Armenia had economic problems and started a negotiation with Turkey. After the two countries announced on April 22 that they agreed on a comprehensive framework to establish normal relations between them and determined a road map for this purpose, the negotiations between them continued for four months with Switzerland’s mediation. The announcement of the parties On April 22, 2009, stating that they had agreed on a “comprehensive framework” to normalize relations and determined ultra-nationalist circles perceived a road map as a concession to Turkey and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaks), which was in the coalition, left the government on April 27, 2009 (Lütem, 2015, p. 260). Sargsyan was re-elected President in the 2013 elections (Presidential Elections of Armenia, 2013). As these last elections were the second term of Sargsyan’s Presidency, Sargsyan faced the opposition’s reaction in the constitutional amendments made in 2015. According to the opposition, Sargsyan switched to the prime ministry system to prolong his rule since it was the last term of the Presidency. In the parliamentary elections held in 2017, Serzh Sargsyan’s Republic Party won 58 of 105 seats, Tsarukyan’s block won 31, Pashinyan’s bloc won 9, and Dashnaktsutyun Party won 8 seats. The Republic Party, together with the Dashnaktsutyun Party, nominated Sarkisyan as the only candidate for the Prime Ministry. Thus, Sargsyan was elected as Prime Minister by the majority in the Parliament on April 17, 2018, and extended his power in the new format. The preparation of the Sargsyan government for constitutional changes in 2013 and the election of Sargsyan as the Prime Minister in the parliament according to the new constitution on April 17, 2018, proved that the opposition’s reactions were not in vain and all these preparations were steps taken to prolong the life of Serzh Sargsyan’s rule. Picture 6.13 Nikol Pashinyan (1975- ) Nikol Pashinyan, whose name was not mentioned in Armenian politics until 2018, was out on the streets during the popular uprising that opposed Sarkisyan’s retake of the sovereignty after the changes in the Constitution, and although he was the leader of a political union with only nine deputy seats in the Parliament, he was elected prime minister under the pressure of the people. His Western-oriented policy was not welcomed by Armenia’s main ally in the region, Russia. However, the situation in the country was different in 2018. The deterioration of the economy, the poverty of the people, the unresolved social problems, the excessive use of power by the oligarchs over the society, and the corruption in their rule have caused the people to mistrust the Sargsyan rule. Evaluating this situation, the opposition “Elk” (Exit) Faction in the Parliament and the President of the “Citizen Agreement” Party, Nikol Pashinyan, announced on March 31, 2018, that they initiated the “My Step” action against Sargsyan’s possible Prime Ministry. Pashinyan and his partners organized a march to Armenia’s major cities (Gumri, Vanadzor, Spitak, Dilijan). Their 2-week march ended with a rally of 15,000 people on 13 April 2018 in the capital Yerevan. On April 16, the number of demonstrators gradually increased, and the people at the rally occupied several main streets and state institutions in the capital. Although it is said that the police did not engage in any activity in these incidents, according to the information provided by the Ministry of Health of Armenia, 46 citizens and six police officers were injured in the clashes between the demonstrators and the police (Fedorkovskaya, 2018, p. 197). Which changes in Armenia’s Constitution caused a political uprising and leadership change? 3 As a result of all these protests, Sargsyan, who could not bear any more pressure, declared that he resigned from the prime minister position. The imprisonment of Pashinyan, albeit for a short period after this resignation, made him a hero in the eyes of the public. The majority in the Parliament also promised Pashinyan that they would vote for him if he were a prime minister candidate. However, on May 1, 2018, most of the Parliamentarians did not keep their promises during the voting and did not elect Pashinyan as the Prime Minister (Pashinyan was not elected prime minister: the ruling party refused to support him). Pashinyan told his supporters that the airport and other main streets in Yerevan should be blocked, and protests in front of the Parliament should be continued. In the Parliament’s elections on May 8, 2020, Nikol Pashinyan was elected Prime Minister with 42 votes against and 59 votes in favor. The early general elections to register the parliamentary legitimacy of Pashinyan, who came to power with street demonstrations, were held on December 9 as envisioned. The Central Election Commission announced the official election results on December 18. Pashinyan’s “My Step” combined group gained an absolute majority with 884,456 votes and 70.43% of the votes. The “My Step” group had 84 deputies receiving more than 70% of the votes .

According to the old Soviet central planning system, Armenia was a country with modern industrial sectors that supplied them with machinery parts, textile products, and other production materials in return for raw materials and energy resources obtained from other Soviet republics. However, after the Soviet period, Armenia lost this characteristic and its large-scale agricultural production activities. Today, it has become a country that can only produce small-scale agricultural production. In its current position, Armenia can only continue to open border trade with Iran and Georgia. As other borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey, due to the wars in 1991 and 1993, had to be closed, and today it cannot engage in trade activities with these countries. In the Caucasus region, economic blockades of Turkey and Azerbaijan’s continue, Armenia needs much more significant economic and legal reforms to eliminate the problems of unemployment, competitiveness, and economic growth. Armenia is more vulnerable to external economic fluctuations and the difficulties arising from the Russian economy due to its blockades, insufficient export opportunities, and the monopolistic practices forward on its main business lines. Armenia is entirely dependent on Russia regarding financial and political matters, especially in the Russians’ energy sector. Almost 12-14% of the gross national product is cash assets sent to the country from people who migrated from the country and worked in Russia. Armenia became a member of the Eurasian Economic Community established under the leadership of Russia in 2015. It signed an inclusive and strengthened cooperation agreement in November 2017 to develop closer relations with the European Union. Armenia must follow a very tight fiscal policy due to the increasing debts and extremely low per capita income level.