Towards the transformation of Asia’s Geopolitics: Eurasian Heartland- Eastern Europe, the Trans-Caucasus, and Central Asia

The fundamental geopolitical changes since the end of the Cold War led to a completely new geometry in Eurasia, which will be defined, for the purposes of this chapter, as to include the Black Sea Basin, the Caucasus, the Caspian Basin, and Central Asia, which was came to be dominated by successive territorial, nationalistic, ethnic and religious disputes across the region from Yugoslavia through Trans-Dniester, Crimea, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Chechenya, and Nagorno-Karabakh to Afghanistan and Tajikistan

However, the collapse of the Soviet Union has changed this situation dramatically, putting the newly independent states of Eurasia firmly into geopolitical calculations. This is both because it was discovered that some of them sit on vast natural resources, notably oil and gas, and because some of them were immediately engulfed in various conflicts

There are number of reasons to link up these distinct geographic areas together while dealing with the geopolitics of the post-Soviet Eurasia. These areas remain a matter of profound interest and of vital concern for Russia. The area is also of increased relevance to Turkey, Iran, China, the US, and the Western European countries. Therefore, there is a need for a broader and more flexible analytical model for the former Soviet Central Asia and the Caucasus.

Established in June 1992, BSEC officially became a ‘regional economic organization’ with an international legal identity in May 1, 1999 upon entry into force of its Charter, signed in June 1998. It is the only organization that includes all six countries on the Black Sea (Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine) as well as six neighbouring countries (Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Greece, Moldova, and Serbia).

The Black Sea region refers to a vast region from geopolitical perspective, stretching from central Europe into western shores of the Caspian Sea, and includes three Caucaisan countries (Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan) though the last two do not have a shoreline to it, and Moldova, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece (though no shore again), and parts of Turkey and Russia bordering the Black Sea.

It isolated from oceans, connected to the Mediterranean Sea through only Turkish Straits. The large European rivers, the Danube, Dnieper and Don via the Sea of Azov, flowing into the Sea.

From a contemporary geopolitical perspective, the Caucasus is the region between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea and comprised of Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, though the parts of Russia, Turkey and Iran could be included from a geographic standpoint.

Central Asia covers the area extending from the Caspian Sea in the west to the border of western China in the east. Russia is in the north and Iran, Afghanistan, and China are in the south. The former Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan form the region.

Supremacy over the Black Sea was the main reason behind the Crimean War of 1856 and struggle to control the Straits created one of the most memorable battles of the First World War.

Following the 1917 Revolution and the withdrawal of the Russian forces from the region, the South Caucasian people were able to unify into a single political entity as the Transcaucasian Democratic Federative Republic between 9 April 1918 to 26 May 1918 and later as the Transcaucasian Socialist Federative Soviet Republic from 12 March 1922 to 5 December 1936. Later, however, they were incorporated into the Soviet Union

Moreover, most of these regions’ economy, alongside their logistical and communication infrastructures, were connected to the centre during the Soviet times. Suddenly finding themselves independent and cut off from decades old economic and financial connections created important obstacles for regional development especially in Central Asia

The newly independent states in Eurasia had to cope with populations searching for and developing a sense of national identity after the collapse of the Soviet Union. As the socialist ideology and its social and economic models were discredited throughout the region, the newly independent states needed to define their own separate identities, as well as coping with re-emerging multiple identities of their citizens.

Ukraine in the northern Black Sea has been an interesting case in that it was claimed by the Russians as the birthplace of the Russian identity, state and the Orthodox Church. As such, the fact that historically modern Russia emerged into the historical stage in what is today Ukraine and later expanded into its current territories, and also that there live significant Russian minority in the country, as well as a significant politically pro-Russian group created more complications in the post-Cold War era.

Despite the long periods of Russian imperial rule and atheistic Soviet-era indoctrination, the influence of Islam over the Muslim inhabited lands of the former Soviet Union remained mostly intact. Moreover, since 1980s, Islam has become an important element of individual and collective self-identity in the region and increasingly became politicised. As a result, Islamic-dominated groups were active in the Fergana Valley in Central Asia and during the Chechen uprising for independence in the Northern Caucasus.

In addition to the concerns about the growing role of political Islam in Central Asia and the Caucasus, there have been raising alarms against the growing influence of Wahhabism in Central Asia and in the North Caucasus. As a fundamentalist approach to Islam, Wahhabism expounds that the Muslims who disagree with the Wahhabi definition of monotheism are practising shirk (idolatry). As such, it justifies killing of other Muslims who deny the Wahhabi definition of monotheism as apostates. As a result, it is watched with growing concern in the region as ISIS recruited fighters from different Central Asian nationalities. Moreover, the presence of ISIS in Afghanistan bordering three Central Asian countries increases the concerns in the region (CSCE, 2015).

Moreover, economic problems in post-Soviet countries have led increase in corruption, which is a major obstacle for reforms and long-term stability. Along with the inequality within societies, another concern related to the corruption is the emergence of a symbiotic relationship between political and criminal worlds in a number of countries. Drug trafficking and related criminal activities are another concern connected with the regional economic development.

Together with the rising sea level and the flooding of coastal areas, there are problems related to increasing saturation and greasiness of the soil that depleted fisheries in the Caspian Sea. Besides, various forms of aquatic life are at risk of extinction in the Caspian Sea as a result of pollution, disturbances caused by the rushed exploration of the coastal shelf, and the development of offshore oilfields. Due to the concentration of hydrocarbon waste, the Azerbaijani coastline is already declared unsafe for humans, and livelihood of most of the fishermen are already in danger.

After more than 20 years of discussion and advancing several different legal positions and political compromises, the littoral Caspian countries - Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan – finally signed the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea on August 12, 2018, granting the Caspian a “special legal status” with 15 nautical miles of exclusive control zone to each littoral state for mineral and energy exploration, and a further 10 miles for fishing.

Eventually, two routes were adopted to construct pipelines out of the region. The northern line was finally realised with the enactment of the Tengiz-Novorossiysk oil pipeline, while western -or southern- route encompassed three separate pipelines; i.e. Baku-Supsa oil pipeline, BakuTbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline. These were complemented later on with the construction of Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline (TANAP) in 2019.

Turkey’s policies in the Black Sea region however have been clearly marked with an intention to avoid conflict since the early days of the post-Cold War era. In here, Turkey spearheaded the only inclusive multilateral cooperation program in Eurasia, i.e. the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization, which brought together various countries in the western part of Eurasia. Nevertheless, there was a clear competition between Turkey and Russia in the Black Sea as well, especially over the naval supremacy in the region, at times joined by the Western powers, until very recently. After the Russia-Georgia War of 2008 and later its annexation of Crimea in 2012 and following heavy investment in its Black Sea Fleet, however, that competition seem to be abated as well.