İŞLETME KARAR MODELLERİ

The decision situations in which the chance of occurrence of each state of nature is known or can be estimated are called decision making under risk.

The probability values change from 0 to 1, where 0 means the event occurrence probability is low and 1 means this probability is high.

An anticipated value for a given investment at some point in the future is called expected value.

Expected opportunity loss, demonstrate the average additional amount the investor would have achieved by making the right decision instead of a wrong one.

In maximum probability criterion, the decision maker confronts the various possible states of nature in a decision under risk and; he or she chooses the alternative that is best for the most likely state of nature, rather than calculating in all states of nature.

The line connecting the nodes on a decision tree is called a branch.

Since the decision tree is usually initiated by the first decision, a decision node positioned at the left side of the decision tree is also the starting node.

A chance node, represented in a circle shape on the decision tree, indicates that one of a finite number of states of nature is expected to occur at this point in the process.

In decision analysis payo refers to the consequence resulting from a specific combination of a decision alternative and a state of nature.

Other options can be found in payoff section of a decision tree.

In a decision problem, occurrences are chance occurrences and all the chance occurrences are governed by probabilities. In the decision making with probability information, a strategy matrix is created and the best results are determined. Another approach used to solve such decision problems is the decision tree. A decision tree is a graphical approach that helps decision-makers see all the scenarios they may encounter. The correct answer is A.

han one state of nature and the decision maker has sufficient information to assign probabilities to the occurrence of each of these states. The probabilities can be obtained from past records or the subjective judgment of the decision maker. In other word, decision situations in which the chance of occurrence of each state of nature is known or can be estimated are defined as decisions made under risk. Such decision-making problems are also known as probabilistic or stochastic decision problems. The correct answer is D.

As known, the probability values change from 0 to 1, where 0 means the event occurrence probability is low and 1 means this probability is high. The process of determining probabilities for states of nature is very important. In the decision making process under risk, a probability value must be determined for the chance of realization of all states of nature in the strategy table and the sum of all probabilities of states of nature must be equal to 1. After these possibilities are added to the strategy table, the decision maker should determine which approach will be used to select the best course of action. The correct answer is B.

Expected (Monetary) Value criterion (EMV), Expected Opportunity Loss criterion (EOL), and the maximum probability criterion are the criterions in decision theory. The correct answer is D.

The Expected Value (EV) is an anticipated value for a given investment at some point in the future. In decision making at risk, the expected value criterion is commonly used when comparing alternatives, based on maximizing expected profit or minimizing expected loss. The expected value criterion attempts to find the expected profit maximized or the expected cost minimized. The profit or cost that will arise from each alternative is handled by certain possibilities. When the decision’s consequences involve only money, we can calculate the Expected Monetary Value (EMV). The correct answer is B.

In this criterion, the decision maker confronts the various possible states of nature in a decision under risk and; he or she chooses the alternative that is best for the most likely state of nature, rather than calculating in all states of nature. With another saying, it states that the decision maker should ignore all possible events except the one most likely to occur, and should select the best possible result (maximum gain or minimum loss) in the given circumstances. The correct answer is D.

A decision tree is composed of some components as; branches, decision nodes, chance nodes, and payoffs. The correct answer is E.

The line connecting the nodes on a decision tree is called a branch. A branch is a single strategy that connects either two nodes or a node and an outcome. When a decision tree is drawn, a general approach is the direction from left to right is shown; therefore the line that comes to the right of a decision node is called the decision branch, while the line to the right of a chance node is called the chance branch. In decision making problems, decision branches are used to represent alternatives (strategies) and chance branches are used to show the states of nature (events). The chance branch is labeled with a probability which represents the decision maker’s estimate of the probability that a particular branch will be followed. The correct answer is C.

Bayes’ theorem is basically a process of revising the known possibilities of an event under the light of new knowledge. The correct answer is B.

Payoff: In decision analysis payoff refers to the consequence resulting from a specific combination of a decision alternative and a state of nature. Payoffs can be expressed in terms of profit, cost, time, distance, or any other measure appropriate for the decision problem being analyzed. The correct answer is C.