İŞLETME KARAR MODELLERİ

The process of choosing the most appropriate one of the alternatives is called “decision making”.

When the decision maker has information about the probabilities of occurrence of the events, the decision making environment is called “decision making under risk”.

When the decision maker has no information about the probabilities of occurrence and outcomes of the events, the decision making environment is called “decision making under uncertainty”.

When the decision maker knows everything about the problem and outcomes of the events, the decision making environment is called “decision making under certainty”.

When the decision maker knows everything about the problem and outcomes of the events, the decision making environment is called “decision making under certainty”

When the decision maker has no information about the probabilities of occurrence and outcomes of the events, the decision making environment is called “decision making under uncertainty”.

When the decision maker has information about the probabilities of occurrence of the events, the decision making environment is called “decision making under risk”.

Precision is not among the reasons for making decisions difficult or easy.

Outcomes/Pay-Offs: These are the values of alternatives and events. Outcomes are usually numeric values.

Events are environmental factors that influence the choice of the decision maker. However, they are uncontrollable.

The first step in the decision-making process is to define the problem. Perhaps this is the most important and most difficult part of the process. At this step, it is very important to describe the problem statement clearly and concisely.

Once the decision problem has been identified, in the second step the objective of the problem must be clearly stated. Therefore, "Establishing objectives" is the second step.

The third step in the decision making process is "Listing all possible decision alternatives."

The fourth step in the decision-making process is "Identifying the possible outcomes for each decision alternative."

The fifth step in the decision making process is "Identifying the pay-off matrix for each combination of alternatives."In this step, the matrix for each alternative and event combination is generated and the outcomes are written to the matrix.

In decision making under certainty, the decision maker knows outcomes of events for each decision alternative. In this case, because the decision maker knows everything about the problem, it is easier to make the best decision.

In decision making under uncertainty, there is more than one event and these may not be identified or measured. Decision maker has no information and knowledge about outcomes of the events or probability of occurrence of the events. In cases where there is no level of information or knowledge about the outcomes of events, the decision is given under uncertainty.

In decision making under risk, decision makers have information about the probability of occurrence of each events. The probability value can be known precisely or predicted. These possibilities can be obtained from the personal opinions of the decision-maker, from the statistical records held in the enterprise, from expert opinions, from market research.