BALKANLAR

In 1999, European Union (EU) launched an initiative called the Stability Pact for Southeast Europe. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria,
Croatia, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia were defined as member partners from the South East Europe region.

Southeast European countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia

Turkey has strong ties with the region due to the common history of Ottoman Empire. Turkey’s investments are heavily on the reconstruction of Islamic infrastructure, such as mosques and educational facilities. Since the end of the Yugoslav wars, Turkey has invested in educational facilities, including establishing colleges that promote the relationship between Turkey and the Western Balkans region. Turkey and Albania have close cooperation in the military sector. Albanian soldiers serve under Turkish command in the ISAF
Afghanistan mission. Turkey has also extensively invested in the region’s businesses and trade. It can be said that Turkey’s political, security, economic, cultural, and educational cooperation with the region remains high.

Many of the Middle Eastern Gulf countries, part of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), that cluster on the Arabian Peninsula have recently increased ties and cooperation with the Western Balkans countries. The key players of the Gulf States in the region are the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait.

Since 2009, drastic developments like the Eurozone crisis, the migration/refugee crisis, Brexit, Arab Spring, Syrian conflict, Ukrainian conflict have shifted EU attention away from Western Balkans.

The West remains still engaged in the Western Balkans region. European Union is a major “western power player” in the processes of influencing different spheres of economic, cultural, political and security developments. The EU, overall, is a major trading partner for the Western Balkan. Balkans constitutes a remarkable market with a population of nearly 18 million people, for the EU.

Čeperković and Gaub call developments that are unlikely to substantially change in the given timeframe as “megatrends” and they determine 6 megatrends for the Balkans. These are (i) population decline; (ii) high unemployment and high public debt; (iii) underperforming institutions; (iv) ethnocentrism and contested statehood; (v) an outdated and deficient education system; and (vi) globalisation trends (internet penetration and urbanisation). They discuss that these megatrends are interacting with 6 game-changers; a term that refers to an event or set of circumstances that exerts a decisive influence on the future, requiring a decision to be made, which can have different consequences depending on what choice is taken.

6 game-changers for the Balkans are the European Union, Russia, China, Turkey, the Gulf countries and several regional and bilateral disputes which comprise territorial disputes, disputes over minority rights, and quarrels pertaining to interstate politics.

Greece and North Macedonia put an end to the 27 years of “name dispute” in 2019.

The long-term Ottoman domination in the Balkan geography had a determining effect on the development of the Balkan society.

Mahan

Croatia

Montenegro

Turkey

Great Schism of 1054

Mehmet II

The Treaty of San Stefano

geographical

Greek, Slavic, and Turkish

decisive